学进去

Whom should you marry? Where should you live? How should you spend your time? For centuries, people have relied on their gut instincts (直觉) to figure out the answers to these life-changing questions. Now, though, there is a better way. We are living through a data explosion, as vast amounts of information about all aspects of human behavior have become more and more accessible. We can use this big data to help determine the best course to chart.

There has long been overwhelming—and often surprising—evidence that algorithms (算法) can be much better than people at making difficult decisions. Researchers have collected data on various kinds of choices people make, the information they base those choices on, and how things turn out. They have found, for example, that a simple data-driven algorithm would have been better than judges at deciding whether a defendant should stay in prison or be released; better than doctors at deciding whether a patient should undergo surgery; and better than school principals at deciding which teachers should be promoted.

The power of data analysis has been proved in the sports and business worlds, too. As made famous by the book and movie Moneyball, baseball teams found that algorithms were better than scouts (星探) at picking players, and better than managers at picking strategies. In finance, the hedge fund Renaissance Technologies dramatically defeated competitors by seeking out patterns in stock market data and using them to inform its investment strategy. Tech firms in Silicon Valley have found that data from experiments provides better insights into how to design their websites than designers could.

These are the early days of the data revolution in decision-making. I am not claiming that we can completely count on algorithms to make our lifestyle choices, though we might get to that point in the future. I am claiming instead that we can all dramatically improve our decision-making by consulting evidence mined from thousands or millions of people who faced dilemmas similar to ours. And we can do that now.