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How much time do you spend doing research before you make a big decision? There are people who go over every detail exhaustively before making a choice, and it is certainly possible to overthink things. But a fair number of individuals are quick to jump to conclusions. Psychologists call the latter a mental bias (偏见). In this case, the error is making a call based on the least of evidence.

A research by Carmen Sanchez, a professor at the University of Illinois, and David Dunning, a professor at the University of Michigan, has found that hasty judgments are often just one part of larger error-prone patterns in behavior and thinking. These patterns have costs. People who tend to make such jumps in their reasoning often choose a bet in which they have low chances of winning instead of one where their chances are much better.

To study jumping, researchers did an experiment to examine decision-making patterns among 600 people from the general population. They applied a thinking game, in which players encountered someone who was fishing from one of two lakes: in one lake, most of the fish were red; in the other, most were gray. The fisher would catch one fish at a time and stop only when players thought they could say which lake was being fished. Some players had to see many fish before making a decision. Others—the jumpers—stopped after only one or two. Participants were also asked questions to learn more about their thought patterns. It was found that the fewer fish a player waited to see, the more errors that individual made in other types of beliefs, reasoning and decisions.

So what is behind jumping? Researchers commonly distinguish between two pathways of thought: automatic, known as system l, which reflects ideas that come to the mind easily, spontaneously and without effort; and controlled, or system 2, consisting of effortful reasoning that is analytic, mindful and intentional. It was found that jumpers and non-jumpers were equally influenced by automatic thoughts. The jumpers, however, did not engage in controlled reasoning to the same degree as non-jumpers. It is system 2 thinking that helps people counterbalance mental biases introduced by system 1. A lack of system 2 thinking is also more broadly connected to their problematic beliefs and faulty reasoning.

In everyday life, the question of whether we should think things through or instead go with our heart is a frequent and important one. Recent studies show that even gathering just a little bit more evidence may help us avoid a major mistake. Sometimes the most important decision we make can be to take some more time before making a choice.